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Bolton bolts and Iran war fever suddenly dropped



Bolton was a well-known man who had never encountered a war he did not like (except Vietnam, which he avoided). And the conflict with Iran is the war he seems to want most.

In 2015, he wrote an editorial in the New York Times entitled "To Stop Iran's Bomb, Bomb Iran." He was a regular (paid) speaker at the annual meeting of Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MEK), an Iranian exile group led for years by Saddam Hussain, and which until 2012 was on the terrorist list the US State Department.

In his latest appearance at a MEK meeting, in 2018, Bolton declared: "The behavior and goals of the [Iranian] regime will not change and, therefore, the only solution is to change the regime itself. "

He has previously advocated for regime change in Venezuela, Iraq, North Korea, Libya and Syria, to name a few. critics of the 201

5 Iran nuclear deal. He took the position of National Security Advisor in April 2018 and, a month later, the US unilaterally upheld the agreement.

With Bolton's departure, the Iranian hawk's mantle is now passed to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. But, unlike Bolton, Pompeo seems to have prioritized his relationship with President Trump.

A recent profile of Pompeo in The New Yorker includes a quote from a former White House official describing the Secretary of State as "among the most sycophantic and hostile people around of Trump. " A former US ambassador who wrote the article said Pompeo was "like a missile seeking heat for Trump's ass."

Bolton's departure may change Trump's stance on Iran, but perhaps not the substance.

Washington's "maximum pressure" policy was designed, according to Pompeo, to change Tehran's behavior. But with the severity of the sanctions, they appear to be designed to bring Iran to its knees.

"We now make the Iranian economy a shambles," Pompeo boasted on ABC's George Stephanopoulos on Sunday, describing the impact of sanctions on the US. "We think their economy could shrink by more than 10 or 12% in the year ahead." preconditions. "

Outside Bolton, such a meeting can now proceed without much resistance within the Trump White House.

It is not clear, however, what might emerge during a Trump-Rouhani meeting. If we look at the example of North Korea, while the nature of the relationship between Trump and Kim Jong Un may change – today's leaders exchange "love letters" instead of insults – the underlying issues, such as North Korea's nuclear program, international sanctions, etc., remain unchanged.

Without sanctions relief, or its promise, Iranians are unlikely to play like Kim.

Also mitigating against a dramatic shift in US-Iran policy was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who lobbied a succession of American administrations to do more tough stand in Tehran.

  John Bolton is fired, and oil prices fall sharply

[19659003] Trump is more than willing to give Netanyahu nearly everything he wanted. He recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital and moved the U.S. embassy there, chilled cold and cut funding to the Palestinian Authority and the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, and shut down the Palestinian diplomatic mission in Washington. rhetoric in Iran, this summer Trump began to change his tune. Instead of bombing Iran, he started to toy with the idea of ​​talking to it.

So shouldn't Trump be cool about confronting Iran? The 2020 election is huge and the prospect of war in Iran combined with the real possibility of a US economic people could put a disaster on the President.

Never big on loyalty, Trump ousted Bolton by mistake. The strongest voice for confrontation with Iran has now been killed in the wilderness, or perhaps on Fox News, where he came from.

While it is always dangerous to try to predict Trump's actions, there is now a real prospect of a slight improvement in the long and unhappy relationship between the US and Iran. of the Middle East, or for a thoughtful approach to the delicate affairs of the state.

Nor did he express much interest or sympathy for those who lived here. But perhaps by design or – more likely – by happy coincidence, by leaving Bolton, President Trump might not have made much of a war.


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