The CDC also says the “best estimate” is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms with Covid-19 die, and the agency estimates that 40% of coronavirus transmission takes place before people become ill .
The agency cautions that these numbers will change as more is learned about the Covid-19, and it warns that the information is intended for planning purposes. However, the agency said the estimates are based on real data collected by the agency before April 29th.
The numbers are part of five planning scenarios “used by mathematical models across the federal government,” according to the CDC. Four of these situations represent “lower and upper limits of disease severity and virus transmission.”;
The fifth scenario is the CDC’s “current best estimate of virus transmission and disease severity in the United States.” In that scenario, the agency estimates that 0.4% of people with Covid-19 disease will die.
For people 65 and older, the CDC puts that figure at 1.3%. For people 49 and older, the agency estimates that 0.05% of people who identify will die.
The expert stepped forward
Under the most severe of the five scenarios outlined – not the agency’s “best estimate” – the CDC listed a symptom of a case breakdown of 0.01, meaning 1% of people in general with Covid-19 and those Symptoms will die.
In the least severe scenario, the CDC puts that figure at 0.2%.
An expert quickly pushed the CDC’s estimates.
“While most of these numbers are reasonable, mortality rates have been reduced,” biologist Carl Bergstrom of the University of Washington told CNN.
Bergstrom, an expert in computer modeling and simulation, said the numbers were inconsistent with real-world findings.
“Estimates of the number of contaminants in places like NYC are not in line with these estimates. Let us remember that the number of deaths in NYC today is more than we expect if every adult and kids in the city are infected with a flu-like virus. It’s not flu. It’s COVID, “Bergstrom said.
“As far as I can see, the ‘best estimate’ is highly optimistic, and the ‘worst case’ scenario is fairly optimistic even with a best estimate. One certainly wants to consider more bad situations, “Bergstrom told CDC numbers.
“By introducing them as the official set of parameters for modeling efforts, the CDC is influencing the models made by federal agencies, but also in the broader scientific discourse as there will be some pressure to use the standard CDC parameters in the paper models going forward, “he said.
“Given that these parameters set small mortality by a large margin compared to the current scientific consensus, this is highly problematic.”
The numbers are for planning purposes, says the CDC
“The scenarios are intended to advance public health preparedness and planning. They are not predictions or estimates of the expected impact of COVID-19,” said the CDC.
It says the numbers do not “reflect the impact of any changes in behavior, social travel, or other interventions,” which would be appropriate for some of the agency’s estimates – such as how many infection arises in every case.
However, the CDC has introduced the figures as preliminary estimates from federal agencies, including the CDC and the HHS Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparation and Response, “designed to help inform model decisions and officials’ of health care using mathematical modeling. “
Under the best scenario scenario, the guideline says that 3.4% of people with Covid-19 symptoms will need hospitalization, with the figure increasing to 7.4% among people 65 and older. The CDC also says it assumes that people without symptoms are as contagious as those with symptoms.