COVID-19 infections and hospitalization are on the rise again with no signs of cessation, creating fears that experts in the fall and winter are warning about the whole year here.
Last week, according to The New York Times COVID-19 tracker, the US confirmed an average of 54,000 new cases per day, a 25 percent increase over two weeks. The surge cannot be explained simply by an increase in the test.
Nineteen states, including North Dakota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Kansas and Indiana, are seeing record-high number of cases in their areas, according to the tracker.
States that seem to have gained pandemic control in recent months, such as Florida, New York, New Jersey, Arizona and others, are also seeing an increase.
“We̵7;re talking about the fall surge now. I think that’s the beginning of that fact,” Scott Gottlieb, former Trump Food and Drug commissioner, told CNBC on Friday.
Gottlieb added that Europe, seeing the daily average of 100,000 new cases of COVID-19 – higher than at any other time during the pandemic – was almost two or three weeks ahead of US
“I think it’s in a difficult fall and winter,” Gottlieb said.
Hospitals are also starting to rise, with Wisconsin building a field hospital in the state park.
Deaths remain flat at nearly 700 per day in the US, but that number is usually behind hospitalizations, which delays the increase in cases, meaning the U.S. may see more fatalities reported in coming week.
The silver lining, Gottlieb said, is the death rate that is likely to be “much lower” than the spring and summer outbreaks due to improved therapies and techniques that have saved people’s lives.
Experts generally say that there are two “increases” of COVID-19 in the US
The first climb hit the northeast of spring, and the second hit the south in the summer, rising to nearly 73,000 cases per day in July – the highest level recorded in the U.S. pandemic Then, the new cases continue to fall, before the start of the ascent upwards in September. Now the US is ready to surpass the former high daily in new cases, experts say.
“We’ve almost returned to the peak we saw nationally in the summer,” said Michael Mina, assistant professor of epidemiology at the Harvard TH Chain School of Public Health.
“We are almost back to the same level and I do not believe that anywhere near us the rising subsidence.… We see [cases] went up and in Europe and in many of those places, cases really dropped pretty low numbers and now they are skyrocketing again in many places. We see it in the US, and we also see it in other places and so we are pretty much there and I think we have a long winter in the future. “
Experts have warned in the month of the influx of cases in the colder months that the US-endured coronavirus outbreak is likely to rival this year.
Respiratory viruses such as the flu and the common cold tend to spread more easily in colder, climate cleaners, leading experts to believe that it will be the same for COVID-19.
“You can’t enter the colder autumn months and the colder winter months with the highest baseline of community infection,” Anthony FauciAnthony FauciKey coronavirus model predicts nearly 80 percent increase in deaths in February of the ‘soldier of immunity’ killed thousands, the country’s leading infectious disease specialist, said at a webinar Friday at Johns Hopkins University.
“We will start doing a lot of things indoors, rather than outdoors, and there you have to be particularly careful about the spread of a respiratory illness,” he added.
Twenty-seven states, most of the states in the South, Midwest and Mountain, have “uncontrolled spread” of COVID-19, according to COVID Exit Strategy, a nonprofit public health group that monitors metrics of pandemic, including case numbers and positive test rates
Another 18 states are “not trending well,” including states on the East and West coasts, and Texas and Louisiana. Only two states – Maine and Vermont – are “trending better,” with declining cases and a smaller proportion of positively returning tests.
The percentage of positive return tests is a key indicator by which COVID-19 is spreading, experts say.
The World Health Organization (WHO) states a test positivity rate of 5 percent or less is a sign that an area is well-controlled by the virus
But 33 states are above that recommendation, according to Johns Hopkins University.
The U.S. is close to 8 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and 220,000 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ensemble report released an additional 9,000 to 20,000 deaths on November 7.