The coronavirus pandemic in the United States may be earlier than mid-November, new models show.
Researchers at the Singapore University of Technology and Design have created a complex model that predicts the exact date that pandemics will end in the US, UK, and other countries around the world.
According to the data, the US is on a path that cannot be coronavirus-free by November 11, while the UK may see an end to September 30.
The model predicts the trajectory of spreading the virus over time while tracking the actual number of newly confirmed cases per day in a given country.
Predictive modeling by the University of Technology and Design of Singapore estimates the United States coronavirus crisis could end on November 11
The US has the highest number of coronavirus cases in the world, leading to 1.6m on Saturday, and 95,979 deaths
However, researchers noted that predictions by nature are likely to be uncertain due to the complexity of the virus as well as other factors including restrictions and testing of protocols in a given country.
In the US, changes in predictions were monitored over a week-long period between 6 May and 12 May, and were found to be relatively stable, suggesting a ‘long time to reach theoretical end’.
‘Estimated USA curves for a week together, showing a high degree of stability, while one may still have additional policies or actions to shorten the curves’ tails, “the report states.
The study also found that predictive surveillance in early May showed the US – and Brazil’s second-worst country – could still ‘suffer’ for the remainder of the year if current measures remain in place and without Develop a vaccine.
For Italy, the world’s leading coronavirus cases, modeling has shown that it is predicted to recover on October 24, until May 8.
However, scientists note that predictions are just estimates and will change depending on a variety of factors.
‘The model and data are inaccurate in the complexity, emerging, and heterogenous realities of different countries over time. The predictions are uncertain in nature, ‘the report states.
‘Over-optimism based on certain predictions is dangerous because it can liberate our disciplines and controls and cause virus rotation and infection, and should be avoided.’
As of Saturday, there were 1,600,937 confirmed coronavirus cases in the US and 95,979 had died.
This comes as all 50 states have begun gradually opening and reducing restrictions following months of locking.
But experts and health officials have since warned that removing restrictions soon could lead to an increase in cases.
Earlier this month, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Dr Anthony Fauci warned another wave of the virus was ‘inevitable’.
The model predicts the pandemic in the UK will be out by September 30th
As of May 8, the coronavirus pandemic in Italy is on track to conclude October 24
Dr Fauci said the reopening of cities and states would quickly trigger an outbreak that would lose control and turn the time into efforts to fight the coronavirus.
‘You will trigger an outbreak because you may not be in control,’ he warned in his testimony before the Senate.
Even with widespread testing and social measures, health authorities have warned that there is no guarantee until a vaccine is developed.
In his testimony before the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee, Fauci said scientists had already tested possible vaccines in phase one of a clinical trial with an eye toward phase two this summer, heat.
‘If we are successful, we expect to know that in late fall and early winter,’ he said.
He also said there are at least eight vaccines in clinical development.
He warned that testing could have negative consequences, including death of patients.
‘I must warn that there is also the possibility of negative consequences where certain vaccines can enhance the negative impact of the infection,’ he said.
He also warned that as states begin to reopen – thus pulling back on stay-at-home and social travel orders – ‘you’ll see some cases again.’
‘There is no doubt that even under the best of circumstances, when you return to mitigation, you will see some cases appear,’ Fauci warned, adding the United States should be prepared for ‘when the inevitable recurrence of infections occurs. ‘
‘We are going to start to see small spikes that could be uprisings,’ he said.