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This stock-market gauge has arrived at a full-time high – and that's a bad news for the bear



A widely used stock market health signal has hit a full-time high, potentially setting stage for an additional rally through the U.S. benchmarks of justice, say technical analysts.

The New York Stock Exchange's early / decline line hits a full-time high on Wednesday, as seen on the chart below from StockCharts:


Paul Schatz, president of Heritage Capital, said MarketWatch in a telephone interview "bear market never, ever starts when the A / D line is doing a full-time high."

Woodbridge, Connecticut-based investment also said that the line A / D "is 90% accurately predicting large"

With technical analysts, the A / D line is the broadest used indicator of market measurement measurements and represents a combined- the sum of the number of stocks advances compared to the number of declining stocks. When the A / D line rises, this means that more stocks are rising than the decline, and vice versa.

View: MarketWatch snapshot on the market

The number of stocks that gets the land grows to decliners at 1.673 to 1,079 on the NYSE and 1,492 to 1,168 on the Nasdaq, while the strength The growth in stocks represents 64.8% of the total volume in the Big Board and 64.5% of the total Nasdaq volume.

A bullish A / D reading came after stocks extended the rebound that took major equity benchmarks at their highest level of 2019, after suffering the worst record declining for trading session immediately before Christmas .

The Dow Jones Industrial Average

DJIA, + 0.24%

reaches 18.8% since December 24, the S & P 500

SPX, + 0.18%

also got about 18%, the Nasdaq Composite Index

COMP, + 0.03%

has grown 21% from that nadir.

The collapse is associated with a combination of rising fears of economic calamities that originate in China's trade in the US, and concerns that the Federal Reserve is moving too aggressively in the normalizing monetary policy and the creation of ripples in financial markets.

Today, these issues have been replaced by investors in Wall Street hoping that Beijing and Washington will soon impede a tariff agreement, even if an imperfect one, and the Fed express a wait-and-see approach to raising borrowing costs for investors.

"Week of the week, the fun case is broken; everything that the bears are hanging their hopes on is falling," Schatz said. "It does not guarantee stocks will continue to get higher, but it breaks the stock market against a major decline," he said.

J.C. The All Star Charts blog posters also have about reading the A / D record. "The expansion of the open edge continues to point to higher stock prices from any kind of intermediate-term perspective," he wrote on Wednesday.

To be sure, concerns about the durability of the current rally continued, specifically given the apparent speed in which the stocks had fallen from the ugly lows.

The doubt about the current rebound is part of the belief that stock gains renewed concerns about stock valuations because earnings are not expected to shine in the future. The S & P 500's earnings price ratio, a popular measure of stock values, in the next 12 months is at its highest since October, at 16.27, after which a low 13.59, according to data FactSet (see chart below): [19659019] In addition, there is concern that further markets can improve the back of a US-China trade agreement, the Fed is likely to continue to be clear pause with interest rate increases, which may potentially fuel a fresh trace.

"Bulls hopes a surprisingly strong US-China trade breaks keeps consensus consensus revenue from drifting down as 2019 emerging as tax cuts keep profit earnings forecasts in 2018 The problem is that, even if it happens, at 16.5x 2019 CY earnings, large stocks appear to be quite worth the 4.2% agreed on the 2019 EPS growth forecasts, "said Alec Young, managing director of the global market. research at FTSE Russell, which refers to late-2017 tax cuts. signed on the law you offered a fillip to corporations.

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